Milei: "The era of potential is over" as Argentina's oil output rises to 932,000 barrels a day

NEUQUÉN, ARGENTINA

Argentine President Javier Milei declared, "Se terminó la era del potencial" (The era of potential is over), in an opening speech at "Expo Argentina Oil & Gas 2026" in Neuquén on Oct. 19 (local time). Milei said national oil production rose from about 635,000 barrels a day in 2023 to 932,000 barrels in August 2026. The presidency (Casa Rosada) released the full text of the speech the same day, and the Argentine government said in a press release that Milei had said Vaca Muerta production was at a level "a pocos pasos del millón de barriles diarios" (a few steps away from a million barrels a day).

Milei says Vaca Muerta production has more than doubled from 2023

At the start of his speech, Milei said he would speak about three things: "de dónde venimos, qué hicimos y hacia dónde vamos" (where we come from, what we did and where we are going). He opened with the history of energy. Milei said, "Durante casi toda nuestra historia, el ser humano vivió con fuerza de sus brazos y la de sus animales" (For almost all of our history, human beings lived with the strength of their arms and that of their animals). After referring to energy in the form of coal, oil and gas, Milei said, "Lo que realmente define la Revolución Industrial es que fue el momento en que dejamos de depender de nuestros músculos" (What really defines the Industrial Revolution is that it was the moment we stopped depending on our muscles).

Milei put production figures from the Vaca Muerta shale formation front and center. Milei said that "La misma Vaca Muerta que en 2023 producía unos 310 mil barriles diarios en promedio" (the same Vaca Muerta that in 2023 produced about 310,000 barrels a day on average) "En agosto de 2026 superó los 670.000 barriles diarios" (in August 2026 exceeded 670,000 barrels a day). Nationally, he said, "se pasó de unos 635.000 barriles diarios en 2023, a 932.000 en agosto del 2026" (it went from about 635,000 barrels a day in 2023 to 932,000 in August 2026).

Referring to Vaca Muerta under previous governments, Milei said, "Durante una década Vaca Muerta funcionó a media máquina, con precios pisados, cepo y miedo a invertir" (For a decade Vaca Muerta ran at half speed, with suppressed prices, currency controls and fear of investing). Milei said, "Argentina se volvió experta en tener potencial" (Argentina became an expert at having potential). He went on, "Si en 2023 éramos un montón de promesas, hoy somos un montón de realidades" (If in 2023 we were a bunch of promises, today we are a bunch of realities).

Milei cited deregulation as the starting point of the change. Milei said, "Eliminamos el cepo y liberamos la comercialización y la exportación de hidrocarburos" (We eliminated currency controls and freed the trading and export of hydrocarbons). He said, "liberamos el precio del petróleo con el DNU 70/23" (we freed the price of oil with Emergency Decree DNU 70/23). Milei described the old system as "precios pisados, subsidios que generaban un derroche de consumo, cepo y prohibiciones de exportar" (suppressed prices, subsidies that generated wasteful consumption, currency controls and export bans).

Milei stresses that a gas importer has become an exporter

Milei explained the reversal in gas supply at length. Milei said, "Durante casi 20 años, los argentinos le compramos gas a Bolivia" (For almost 20 years, we Argentines bought gas from Bolivia). He also said that every winter "salíamos desesperados a comprar barcos de gas licuado" (we went out desperately to buy liquefied gas ships). Milei said, "El gasoducto que traía el gas boliviano hacia el sur se revirtió y ahora lleva el gas de Vaca Muerta hacia el norte" (The gas pipeline that brought Bolivian gas south was reversed and now carries Vaca Muerta gas north).

He also gave export figures. Milei said, "En el último año exportamos, en promedio, unos 8 millones de metros cúbicos por día, con picos de más de 10 millones" (In the last year we exported, on average, about 8 million cubic meters a day, with peaks of more than 10 million). Milei said, "Nuestro gas ya llega a Chile, a Uruguay, a Brasil" (Our gas already reaches Chile, Uruguay and Brazil). He went on, "En abril del año pasado, por primera vez en nuestra historia, el gas argentino llegó a Brasil atravesando Bolivia" (In April last year, for the first time in our history, Argentine gas reached Brazil through Bolivia).

He said the energy trade balance had swung from deficit to surplus. Milei said the energy balance had in the past run deficits "de hasta 5 mil millones de dólares anuales" (of up to $5 billion a year). He said that now it "hoy va camino a dejar un superávit de más de 10.000 millones de dólares" (is on track to leave a surplus of more than $10 billion). Milei said, "hoy batimos el récord de exportaciones en un mes, superamos los 10,000 millones de dólares" (today we broke the record for exports in a month, we exceeded $10 billion).

Projects announced under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) top $210 billion

Milei presented the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) as the second pillar of growth. Milei said, "promulgamos el Régimen de Incentivo a las Grandes Inversiones durante el primer año" (we enacted the Large Investment Incentive Regime during the first year). Milei said, "ya hay más de 210 mil millones de dólares en proyectos anunciados" (there are already more than $210 billion in announced projects), "de los cuales el 45% son específicamente en el área de petróleo y gas" (of which 45% are specifically in the oil and gas area).

Milei directly rebutted criticism from some economists who question the fiscal cost of RIGI. Milei asked, "cómo puede tener costo fiscal una inversión que sin el RIGI jamás se hubiera hecho" (how can an investment that would never have been made without RIGI have a fiscal cost). Milei said, "un proyecto que no existe no paga ningún impuesto" (a project that does not exist pays no taxes).

Milei cited mining company Rio Tinto as an example of investment spreading to domestic suppliers. Milei said Rio Tinto "destinó 1800 millones de dólares a proveedores argentinos" (allocated $1.8 billion to Argentine suppliers). Milei said Patagonia "tiene todo para convertirse en uno de los grandes polos globales donde se instalen los centros de datos" (has everything to become one of the great global hubs where data centers are installed), citing abundant energy and low temperatures.

He also laid out liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects one by one. Milei said, "Un buque de licuefacción frente al golfo San Matías va a empezar a cargar gas de Vaca Muerta con destino a Alemania" (A liquefaction vessel off the San Matías Gulf is going to begin loading Vaca Muerta gas bound for Germany), saying the contract was worth "más de 7.000 millones de dólares" (more than $7 billion). The government press release said Milei had said these European exports would take place "el próximo año" (next year). Milei said state oil company YPF was pursuing the "Argentina LNG" project with Italy's Eni and the United Arab Emirates' XRG. Milei put the project's investment at "una inversión de 51.000 millones de dólares" ($51 billion) and its exports at "hasta 10.000 millones de dólares de exportación por año" (up to $10 billion a year).

Monobuoys for VMOS pipeline await installation off Río Negro

Milei reported progress on the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline, a crude export infrastructure project. Milei said, "Hace apenas unos días llegaron a Río Negro las dos monoboyas del oleoducto Vaca Muerta Oil Sur" (Just a few days ago the two monobuoys of the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline arrived in Río Negro). Milei said VMOS "Es una obra de unos 3000 millones de dólares que nos va a permitir exportar alrededor de 15 mil millones de dólares por año" (is a project of about $3 billion that will allow us to export around $15 billion a year). He said the monobuoys "se van a instalar frente a Punta Colorada" (will be installed off Punta Colorada).

The Río Negro provincial government announced on Oct. 5 that the monobuoys had left the United Arab Emirates and arrived at the port of San Antonio Este. According to the provincial government, each monobuoy weighs 272 tons and measures 15.3 m in diameter, and they will be installed off Punta Colorada, about 7 km from the coast. A total of 721 steel pipes for the subsea pipeline also arrived. Citing VMOS, the provincial government said the very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that will berth there can load up to 2 million barrels of crude at a time. The provincial government said it was inspecting the Seminole, which is carrying out welding and laying of the subsea pipeline off Punta Colorada.

According to explanatory material released by the Río Negro provincial government on Sept. 2, a monobuoy is a connection point at sea between a pipeline coming from land and a tanker. Crude oil travels from the Punta Colorada terminal through a subsea pipeline about 7 km long to a pipeline end manifold (PLEM) on the seabed, then passes through pipes and hoses via the monobuoy and is loaded onto tankers. Río Negro Governor Alberto Weretilneck said on Oct. 5 of the monobuoys' arrival, "Hoy Río Negro da otro paso histórico" (Today Río Negro takes another historic step).