Year-End Outlook for Seoul Metropolitan Area Housing Starts at 218,000–235,000 Units, Falling Short of Government's '270,000 a Year' Pledge

SEOUL

The South Korean government itself has projected that it will fail to meet this year's annual target of breaking ground on 270,000 housing units in the Seoul metropolitan area, part of the Lee Jae-myung administration's goal to begin construction on 1.35 million homes in the capital region between 2026 and 2030. In materials for its first "Regular Briefing on Housing Supply" on October 16, the Office for Government Policy Coordination stated, "As of the second week of October, groundbreaking on more than 99,000 housing units has commenced in the Seoul metropolitan area this year, with an estimated total of more than 218,000 to 235,000 units expected to break ground by the end of the year." Even the upper end of the projection, 235,000 units, falls 35,000 units short of the annual target. Six days later, on October 22, Prime Minister Han Seong-sook visited a housing supply site in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, and said, "As the August 13 measures are a promise made to the public, they must strictly be kept."

Government Promised Public 270,000 Units Annually Based on Groundbreakings

The annual 270,000-unit benchmark was chosen by the administration itself. On September 7, 2025, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport jointly announced the new administration's "Plan to Expand Housing Supply" with relevant ministries. The ministry stated, "A total of 1.35 million new homes, or 270,000 homes per year, will be supplied to Seoul and the capital region over the next five years ('26–'30)." It added, "This is 1.7 times the supply volume of the past three years, representing an increase of 110,000 units each year."

In the same document, the ministry also changed the criteria for counting targets. It explained, "As criticisms were raised that supply volumes calculated on a permit-approval basis had low perceived policy impact and often failed to lead to actual completions, the new administration's supply targets are managed on a 'groundbreaking' basis to maximize public impact and feasibility." The first year of the five-year target based on groundbreakings is 2026. The ministry also presented a plan to "rapidly supply more than 372,000 homes" on public housing land in the capital area. In urban centers, it said it would "expand supply in highly sought-after urban areas by utilizing aging facilities and idle land, and by promoting reconstruction and redevelopment projects." The government also announced at the time that it would "operate a real estate policy consultative body involving relevant ministries."

Eleven months later, on August 13, 2026, the government issued another supply package. On this day, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the Financial Services Commission, the Office for Government Policy Coordination, and the Ministry of Economy and Finance jointly announced the "Rapid Housing Supply Plan to Stabilize the Lease and Purchase Markets" and the "Comprehensive Financial Measures to Stabilize the Real Estate Market." The government stated, "These measures were prepared with the goal of reforming the volume, pace, and allocation of housing supply, restoring the supply ecosystem, and strengthening financial support for actual homebuyers to resolve the housing supply slump seen since 2022."

The core of the package added more volume while leaving previous targets in place. The government stated it would "enhance execution of the 1.35 million capital area groundbreaking target for 2026–2030" and supply an additional 230,000-plus units in the capital area, including 100,000 units on new public development sites. As mechanisms to accelerate pace, it introduced policies such as "adopting the fastest-track groundbreaking model on public land, providing incentives for early groundbreaking, restoring private-sector supply, strengthening housing ladders for young adults and newlyweds, and universal public rental housing." The financial package included "expanding real estate project financing (PF) guarantees and liquidity supply, establishing new guarantee products for redevelopment and reconstruction projects, expanding private financing support such as relocation loans," tailored financial support for end-users, and "measures to curb speculation and household debt through regulations such as the Debt Service Ratio (DSR)." Prescriptions easing supply-side financing while tightening household lending through regulation were delivered as a single package.

Monthly Data Shows Capital Region Groundbreakings Hovering Around Last Year's Levels

According to monthly housing statistics from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, groundbreakings in the capital area this year differ little from last year. Nationwide groundbreakings rose early in the year. On April 30, the ministry announced that "nationwide housing groundbreakings in March totaled 18,995 units, up 28.4% month-on-month, and the cumulative total through March stood at 45,104 units, up 32.6% year-on-year." However, among March groundbreakings, 6,281 units were in the capital area and 12,714 were outside it. Capital region groundbreakings in May reached 11,685 units, up 27.6% year-on-year, and cumulative groundbreakings through May totaled 48,855 units, up 8.1%. The trend reversed in June. On July 31, the ministry announced that "June capital region groundbreakings were 16,349 units, down 19.9% year-on-year, and cumulative performance stood at 65,204 units, down 0.7% year-on-year." The number of homes breaking ground in the capital region during the first six months of the year fell short of one-quarter of the annual target.

In the August 31 announcement, "July housing groundbreakings in the capital region were 12,690 units, up 18.5% year-on-year, and cumulative performance through July stood at 77,894 units, up 2.0% year-on-year." But in August statistics released on September 30, the momentum stalled again. The ministry stated, "August capital area groundbreakings were 8,845 units, down 1.7% year-on-year, whereas non-capital area groundbreakings were 9,168 units, up 22.5%." In the month the August 13 package was unveiled, capital region groundbreakings dipped below 10,000 units and shrank compared to the previous year.

Last year, capital region groundbreakings rose significantly in September. In September data released by the ministry on October 31, 2025, capital area groundbreakings for the single month of September last year were 16,449 units, up 91.8% from the same month a year earlier, and "the cumulative performance through September was 101,800 units, down 7.0% compared to the same period of the previous year (109,466 units)." Capital region groundbreakings from January to September last year totaled 101,800 units, whereas the tally compiled by the Office for Government Policy Coordination through the second week of October this year exceeds 99,000 units. The two figures differ in reporting agencies and timeframes.

During the same period, housing presales in the capital region increased. Capital region presales in June totaled 13,136 units, up 48.7% year-on-year, and cumulative presales in the first half rose 55.1% to 63,586 units. In July, monthly presales fell 12.8% to 10,405 units, but cumulative presales remained 39.8% higher at 73,991 units. In August, capital region presales surged 40.6% to 14,587 units, while non-capital presales dropped 57.1% to 2,708 units.

The finalized 2025 housing construction figures jointly released by the ministry on September 30 stood at "388,000 permits approved, 272,000 groundbreakings, and 300,000 completions." Last year, housing groundbreakings nationwide totaled 272,000 units, while the government's annual groundbreaking target for the capital region alone is 270,000 units. Regarding these finalized figures, the ministry stated, "A discrepancy of 42,000 units occurred compared to previous provisional completion figures, and duplicate counting issues were resolved by improving statistical compilation methods."

Permits in Seoul Rise, but Completions Drop Sharply

Signs of improvement appeared in permit-approval indicators. The ministry announced that "in August, capital region housing permits totaled 15,470 units, up 105.6% year-on-year, while Seoul logged 11,306 units, surging 604.4%." In the same month, permits outside the capital area fell 36.6% to 6,137 units. Monthly presales in Seoul declined 27.6% to 1,473 units in August, but cumulative performance was up 78.5%.

However, permit-approval trends remain erratic. In March data released on April 30, capital region permits were "9,625 units, down 36.4% year-on-year, and cumulative performance through March was 27,471 units, down 26.3%." In May statistics, permits for the single month rose 64.0% to 14,152 units, but cumulative permits were down 4.0% at 57,765 units. In June data, capital region permits were "10,181 units, down 26.2% year-on-year, and cumulative performance stood at 67,946 units, down 8.1% year-on-year." In July, monthly permits rose 27.9% to 12,640 units, but "cumulative performance through July stood at 80,586 units, down 3.9% year-on-year." Building permits are the very metric the government dropped from its targets, citing criticism that their perceived policy impact was low.

Completions, which translate into actual move-ins, experienced even steeper drops. Capital region completions in June totaled 10,532 units, down 52.4% year-on-year, with cumulative performance "down 47.6% year-on-year to 52,925 units." In July, single-month completions rose 20.9% to 18,279 units, but cumulative capital region completions stood at "71,204 units, down 38.7% year-on-year." In August, capital region completions rose 12.5% to 8,871 units, while non-capital completions dropped 30.9% to 6,280 units. In the August data, "cumulative nationwide completions decreased 27.2% year-on-year." At the end of August, unsold housing units nationwide stood at 69,134, up 1.3% from the previous month, while unsold units after completion declined 3.7% to 28,080.

Government Underscores Commitment with Year-End Groundbreaking Projections and Regular Disclosures

The government projects that groundbreakings will rise over the remainder of the year to reach more than 218,000 to 235,000 units by year-end. On October 16, as part of follow-up measures to the August 13 plan, the Rapid Housing Supply Inspection Team under the Office for Government Policy Coordination instituted regular briefings to periodically inform the public of housing supply progress and outcomes. The briefings will be held twice a month, alternating between the Office for Government Policy Coordination and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The government explained that it aims to enhance public predictability by disclosing stage-by-stage implementation progress—including groundbreakings, presales, and move-ins—along with future schedules.

The government also put forward targets for subsequent stages of supply. The Office for Government Policy Coordination cited "recruiting occupants for more than 15,000 units by the end of '26, and move-ins for 100,000 public housing units in the capital region by the end of '27." It noted that establishment of a "Digital Housing Supply Dashboard," which provides a consolidated overview of supply information, is currently underway.

Financial follow-up measures also followed. On October 14, the Financial Services Commission held a housing supply financial support review meeting combined with a review of real estate project financing (PF) conditions. The FSC stated that as follow-up measures to the August 13 package, it is pursuing "close management of each of the 279 project sites in regulated areas within the capital region," operating a PF Financial Difficulties Resolution Center, expanding approvals for PF guarantees, and establishing KAMCO funds. The announcement also confirmed that "regulations on PF equity capital ratios for residential project sites are deferred for two years." As of the end of June, the balance of PF loans stood at 115.8 trillion won, turning upward for the first time since the end of 2023, while the PF loan delinquency rate dipped slightly from the previous quarter to 4.56%. The FSC explained that loans rated "caution" or "concern of insolvency" shrank to 15.1 trillion won (9.0% of the total), and cumulative restructuring and reorganization reached 19.7 trillion won, demonstrating that soundness in the PF market continues to improve. For non-residential project sites, the FSC explained that "implementation will proceed immediately from '27 as originally planned, with regulations to be phased in starting in '29."

Prime Minister and Deputy PM Visit Sites in Same Week, Stressing 'Promises' and 'Speed'

Starting six days after the regular briefing, the prime minister and deputy prime minister visited housing sites in succession. On October 22, Prime Minister Han conducted her seventh on-site housing supply inspection at the former site of Gonghang High School in Banghwa-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. The Office for Government Policy Coordination introduced the location as "an available site in downtown Seoul included in the August 13 package, boasting high housing supply potential with nearby access to subway Line 5 stations." On the vacated school site, 270 public housing units for young adults and newlyweds along with a multi-purpose sports facility are scheduled to be built. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) reported on project implementation plans.

Prime Minister Han requested, "Please take special care to ensure that development plans swiftly translate into housing supply so that this project can serve as a model for others." She also urged that community spaces and amenities reflecting the lifestyle characteristics of young adults and newlyweds be incorporated from the initial design phase. She added that if gathering resident opinions or coordinating with relevant agencies proves difficult, mechanisms such as the special act on the complex development of school sites should be actively utilized. Prime Minister Han asked the ministry, municipal and provincial offices of education, and local governments to identify additional available urban plots. She noted, "The capital region, including Seoul, is already overcrowded, making it difficult to secure new sites with good accessibility," adding that utilizing idle urban plots for housing supply offers practical help to households in need of housing support, such as young adults and newlyweds. Han pledged to "continuously monitor project progress and obstacles through on-site inspections and pan-governmental rapid housing supply review meetings" until the public feels the effects of housing stability.

The following day, October 23, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Lee Hyoung-il visited the Narakium Yeongdeungpo Complex Government Building in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. At this site, KAMCO redeveloped an aging public government building through public consignment development to construct a mixed-use facility comprising public offices, Happy Housing, and neighborhood commercial facilities. The Ministry of Economy and Finance introduced the complex as providing affordable urban housing for students, young people, and senior citizens. In the second leg of his on-site visits across three core livelihood policies—housing, jobs, and microfinance—Deputy Prime Minister Lee discussed housing support improvement measures with public rental housing operating agencies including KAMCO, LH, and the Housing Management Corporation. "It is important to improve housing quality so that residents can live comfortably and safely," Lee said. Calling for thorough post-occupancy maintenance, he noted that housing stability across the entire life cycle is the policy objective. He continued, "We will concentrate available resources on stabilizing public housing and reflect improvement tasks identified on the ground into policy so that the public can tangibly feel the results of housing stability." The Ministry of Economy and Finance stated that it would "accelerate implementation of the 28,000-unit supply plan in the capital region utilizing aging public buildings and idle state-owned land" and seek additional plots for young adults and newlyweds.

Remaining Two and a Half Months Require More Groundbreakings Than Previous Nine Months Combined

Materials from the prime minister and deputy prime minister's visits did not specify when ground will be broken on the 270 units at the Gonghang High School site or when move-ins will occur, nor how many of the 28,000 units on aging government building and idle state-owned land sites have entered the groundbreaking phase. The headline chosen by the government when establishing regular briefings on October 16 was: "Housing Supply: Regularly Disclosing Everything from Plans to Achievements."

Capital region groundbreakings stood at 65,204 units in the first half of the year and 77,894 units through July. According to the Office for Government Policy Coordination's tally, the figure exceeded 99,000 units by the second week of October. To achieve the government's year-end projection of 218,000 to 235,000 units, 119,000 to 136,000 units must break ground during the remaining two and a half months—more than the total recorded over the preceding nine-plus months of this year. Even if the upper bound of the forecast is met, it will still fall 35,000 units short of the annual 270,000 target.

Sources (KST)

• Office for Government Policy Coordination Rapid Housing Supply Inspection Team press release · 2026-10-16 · "Where and When Will My Home Be Supplied?": Housing Supply Regularly Disclosed from Plans to Achievements (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=288200
• Office for Government Policy Coordination (Policy Briefing) · 2026-10-23 · Prime Minister Han Seong-sook: "Identify Additional Available Sites in Urban Centers and Actively Utilize Them for Housing Supply" · https://m.korea.kr/news/policyNewsView.do?newsId=148974185&pageIndex=1&cateId=&repCode_P=&smenu=EDS01
• Ministry of Economy and Finance (Policy Briefing) · 2026-10-23 · Deputy Prime Minister Visits Yeongdeungpo Happy Housing: "Concentrate Available Resources on Housing Stability" · https://m.korea.kr/news/policyNewsView.do?newsId=148974224&pageIndex=1&cateId=&repCode_P=&smenu=EDS01
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Financial Services Commission, Office for Government Policy Coordination, and Ministry of Economy and Finance press release · 2026-08-13 · Additional Supply of 230,000+α Units in Capital Region, Promoting Housing Supply and Strengthening Financial Support for Actual Homebuyers Including Youth (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=285342
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2025-09-07 · Announcement of New Administration's "Plan to Expand Housing Supply" (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=270716
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2025-10-31 · Housing Statistics for September 2025 (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=272841
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2026-04-30 · Housing Statistics for March 2026 (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=280438
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2026-06-30 · Housing Statistics for May '26 (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=283586
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2026-07-31 · Housing Statistics for June '26 (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=284940
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2026-08-31 · Housing Statistics for July 2026 (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=286032
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport press release · 2026-09-30 · Housing Statistics for August '26 and Publication of Finalized Housing Construction Statistics for '25 (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=287561
• Financial Services Commission press release · 2026-10-14 · Real Estate Project Financing (PF) Status Review Meeting and Review Meeting on Financial Support Measures to Promote Housing Supply Convened (Published by KDI Center for Economic Education and Information) · https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=288009